Even if inflation stays high, real growth is slowing and hence long treasuries / short yields is the trade to have on. #macro
Peak #inflation? The inflation rate most closely watched by Fed showed that price pressures were a bit tamer: May PCE was a bit soft, w/headline +6.3% YoY (flat vs April, below +6.4% expected) & core +4.7% (from +4.9% in Apr & below +4.8% forecast). Bonds rally w/US 10y down 7bps
Looks like we're already back into the 3400-3800 range on SPX. Data today & tomorrow will likely be met with selling regardless of numbers. Expect we could hit 3400 before the next decent bounce. #macro
I am expecting SPX to rally or at least hold firm into quarter end. As such i've not added to my short position. I will add again when July arrives and still expect a range of 3400-3800. Meanwhile i'm adding to my long treasury position (10y+). #macro https://twitter.com/stokesbaytrader/status/1535245264323330048
Unite the union: Unite secures 'game changing' pay deal for Heathrow cabin crew.
https://www.unitetheunion.org/news-events/news/2022/june/unite-secures-game-changing-pay-deal-for-heathrow-cabin-crew/
via @GoogleNews
The head of Spain’s statistics office is set to step down following differences between the agency and government over the calculation of key economic data https://trib.al/rlAj1e8
S&P 500 may have another 24% to fall to 2,900 points, 150yrs of market history shows, acc to SG. SG studied post-crisis market valuations starting in the 1870s, using quantitative analysis, as opposed to factors such as earnings projections and valuations. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-may-another-24-204356105.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
I am expecting SPX to rally or at least hold firm into quarter end. As such i've not added to my short position. I will add again when July arrives and still expect a range of 3400-3800. Meanwhile i'm adding to my long treasury position (10y+). #macro
New target range for SPX 3400-3800 in play over the next few weeks. #macro https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1535240030654013445
GERMAN ENGINEERING BODY VDMA: DANGER IS REAL THAT WE ARE GOING TOWARDS AN UNDER-SUPPLY AND THEREFORE A RATIONING REGIME
95 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $2.259 TRLN AT FED REVERSE REPO OPERATION, A FRESH RECORD.
95 Counterparties Take $2.259 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.189 Tln, 97 Bids)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
If history is any guide, the selloff might still be in its early stages. Stocks historically don’t bottom out until the Fed eases. The S&P 500 has dropped a median of 24% during recessions going back to 1946. https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-historically-dont-bottom-out-until-the-fed-eases-11655594823?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter HT @OlafGersemann