OUCH! #Euro sank to a 20y low against the US Dollar as investors pared bets on #ECB interest-rate hikes given the growing risk of a recession in the region. Euro fell as much as 0.9% to 1.0331, its weakest level since December 2002.
Good Morning from #Germany, which is falling as an economic powerhouse on a global scale. Germany’s trade surplus is gone. Foreign trade balance came in at MINUS €1bn in May, which is the 1st negative print since 1991 due to its energy problems & weakness in manufacturing.
US 10y yields crashes <3% on recession fears after a measure of US manufacturing activity weakened in June to 2y low as new orders contracted. ISM June purchasing managers index falls to 53 vs 54.5 expected. New orders index shrinks, sinks to lowest since May 2020.
Even if inflation stays high, real growth is slowing and hence long treasuries / short yields is the trade to have on. #macro
Peak #inflation? The inflation rate most closely watched by Fed showed that price pressures were a bit tamer: May PCE was a bit soft, w/headline +6.3% YoY (flat vs April, below +6.4% expected) & core +4.7% (from +4.9% in Apr & below +4.8% forecast). Bonds rally w/US 10y down 7bps
Looks like we're already back into the 3400-3800 range on SPX. Data today & tomorrow will likely be met with selling regardless of numbers. Expect we could hit 3400 before the next decent bounce. #macro
I am expecting SPX to rally or at least hold firm into quarter end. As such i've not added to my short position. I will add again when July arrives and still expect a range of 3400-3800. Meanwhile i'm adding to my long treasury position (10y+). #macro https://twitter.com/stokesbaytrader/status/1535245264323330048
Unite the union: Unite secures 'game changing' pay deal for Heathrow cabin crew.
The head of Spain’s statistics office is set to step down following differences between the agency and government over the calculation of key economic data https://trib.al/rlAj1e8
S&P 500 may have another 24% to fall to 2,900 points, 150yrs of market history shows, acc to SG. SG studied post-crisis market valuations starting in the 1870s, using quantitative analysis, as opposed to factors such as earnings projections and valuations. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-may-another-24-204356105.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr
I am expecting SPX to rally or at least hold firm into quarter end. As such i've not added to my short position. I will add again when July arrives and still expect a range of 3400-3800. Meanwhile i'm adding to my long treasury position (10y+). #macro
New target range for SPX 3400-3800 in play over the next few weeks. #macro https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1535240030654013445
GERMAN ENGINEERING BODY VDMA: DANGER IS REAL THAT WE ARE GOING TOWARDS AN UNDER-SUPPLY AND THEREFORE A RATIONING REGIME
Good Morning from German where the German EconMin Habeck will trigger 2nd stage of the country’s 3-phase gas-emergency plan later today. This could cause prices to explode significantly for consumers, b/c prices on markets significantly higher than the prices of Russian contracts
95 COUNTERPARTIES TAKE $2.259 TRLN AT FED REVERSE REPO OPERATION, A FRESH RECORD.
95 Counterparties Take $2.259 Tln At Fed Reverse Repo Op (prev $2.189 Tln, 97 Bids)
If history is any guide, the selloff might still be in its early stages. Stocks historically don’t bottom out until the Fed eases. The S&P 500 has dropped a median of 24% during recessions going back to 1946. https://www.wsj.com/articles/stocks-historically-dont-bottom-out-until-the-fed-eases-11655594823?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter HT @OlafGersemann