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Bernie stands a chance
Whilst the coronavirus will likely last at least a few more months and have a noticeable impact on global GDP, the economy will recover once the antidote is developed. Bernie Sanders on the other hand could be a long term problem for those wanting business as usual. A self-described 'democratic socialist', Bernie represents change...
Continue readingHome run
The possible impeachment against President Trump was a remote chance but has ended sooner than the Democrats would have liked. It looks as if Trump is set to be acquitted in his impeachment trial after senators voted against calling witnesses or admitting new evidence. We can now expect him to focus on attacking Democrats...
Continue readingPanic stations
The recent coronavirus outbreak and the negative market reaction is all part of the path to slower growth. Clearly, this outbreak could not be predicted but US 10 year yields have struggled to make any headway to reach 2%. The selling on Friday in equities and move into bonds was met with little resistance....
Continue readingIt’s the ‘real’ economy, stupid.
Central banks have been expanding the money supply hoping to raise inflation to their arbitrary 2% target. The theory they are working from is that increasing money supply generates aggregate demand through encouraging lending and investment. The problem they face however is that money is not in short supply. Indeed there is too much...
Continue readingCentral banks – day of reckoning?
The Fed and other central banks across the globe are printing more money. Even India is buying their government bonds at a sharper pace. The globe is monetising debt. That is to say, under this fiat money system, we are printing cash to spend on (currently) financial assets relative to producing assets and services....
Continue readingTarget zero inflation
The majority of central banks focus on a 2% inflation target. In the developed world, we are experiencing inflation well below this level. I argue this is creating a debt spiral which is completely unnecessary if the true objective should be to increase GDP per capita and equality of income and wealth. Over the...
Continue readingGood parenting
When a child misbehaves the best method is to correct their behaviour immediately, little and often. This keeps them 'honest'. Not doing so only enforces a message that misbehaviour is acceptable. Giving in to bad behaviour is even worse, it condones bad behaviour. As banks are required to hold reserves at the Fed under...
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