Posts

Bitcoin is going mainstream

Bitcoin rose above $28,000 today. It seems to be gaining wider acceptance in the traditional finance community. If it is to become an accepted asset class, it has only just started the journey and hence its price is likely to see continued gains. Unfortunately, Darwinex no longer supports cryptocurrency so I cannot add to my...Continue reading

The US gambles with the dollar

Jerome Powell's recent announcement of the change in Fed policy to target inflation at 2% on average was not a surprise. Powell has previously tried to communicate that the Fed is indifferent between missing on the upside as they are missing on the downside. This policy statement tries to build on those previous statements. The...Continue reading

Hand in hand they blindly go

Forefront in my mind over the next month is central bank policy and the narrative from Powell and other FOMC members from now up to and including their next meeting in September. Yields rose last week in reaction to signs of rising inflation. That then pushed down on the price of gold. The risk for...Continue reading

Another gold liquidation

Yesterday saw a large sell off in gold and silver. Reasons for the fall were abound including rising inflation, increasing yields and the Russian vaccine approval. All of them valid reasons why gold and silver would fall after sitting in overbought territory for so long. But what has changed? The reason I hold gold is...Continue reading

Looking ahead

LWE and SKI have held very similar positioning over the last couple of weeks. That reflects my view that the short and medium term opportunities are aligned. However, I expect as the Summer moves on we will see increased volatility due to fiscal incentives being reduced and the momentum trade on gold getting more overbought....Continue reading

Correlations indicate a new phase

When equities sold off in March the risk-off mode also took down gold and strengthened the US dollar. It was clear that investors were not positioned for such a downturn as they were forced to liquidate positions. Most recently however this correlation between equities and assets has broken down. As equities fell toward the end...Continue reading

Euro nations coming together

Positive news for the Euro as after many days of negotiations EU leaders finally agree to 390 bn Euro of grants alongside loans of 360 bn Euro. Whilst EURUSD has gained to the high end of its recent range, the Euro has not outperformed other currencies than the dollar. I don’t think this level of...Continue reading

High stakes poker

Have you had your free money yet? As a resident of Jersey, I've just been told I will receive £100 by September to spend in Jersey. Of course, it's not only me, every man, woman and child will receive a £100 by voucher or pre-paid card with an expected time limit of November before the...