Posts

Correlations indicate a new phase

When equities sold off in March the risk-off mode also took down gold and strengthened the US dollar. It was clear that investors were not positioned for such a downturn as they were forced to liquidate positions. Most recently however this correlation between equities and assets has broken down. As equities fell toward the...

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Euro nations coming together

Positive news for the Euro as after many days of negotiations EU leaders finally agree to 390 bn Euro of grants alongside loans of 360 bn Euro. Whilst EURUSD has gained to the high end of its recent range, the Euro has not outperformed other currencies than the dollar. I don’t think this level...

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High stakes poker

Have you had your free money yet? As a resident of Jersey, I've just been told I will receive £100 by September to spend in Jersey. Of course, it's not only me, every man, woman and child will receive a £100 by voucher or pre-paid card with an expected time limit of November before...

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Positive Euro positioning

Darwinex pivot First, a word on the Darwinex pivot changing their fee structure from commissions to performance and management fee. Overall I support the change since it allows Darwinex to focus on growing AUM and performance instead of encouraging trading turnover. What’s good for investors in all 3 Stokes Bay Darwins is that there...

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Do budget deficits not matter?

You may have said to your kids, "no screens before midday". Then one busy day when you're too occupied to give it the necessary thought, your kids pick up a screen after breakfast and you say nothing. Then, over time as the event re-occurs, the rule without being spoken, gets re-written.  What we all...

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Economics needs to save the day

  The narrative begins to switch from ‘return to work’ to trying to understand what the economy will look like in the weeks and months ahead. I think most people understand (and even the politicians admit) we are not returning to anything like normal in terms of economic activity. Even if we get a...

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QE is fool’s gold

The debate continues amongst politicians and medics about how best to return the world to work. I don’t think we know enough about the virus to return in anything other than a slow and phased approach. What I do know is that wearing masks will become as accepted in the West as it is...

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Markets are broken

*you know as I write this, Trump keeps mis-speaking, talking about ‘billions’ and needing to correct himself to ‘trillions’ and that is a great introduction to the below. This week was not about the markets. Prices are not relevant right now. I am not thinking here that markets are not important. We are traders...

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Time for a reset

Every so often, we get an opportunity to reflect, rethink and perhaps reset. Covid-19 could be one great opportunity. Are we really happy with our lives and the way society conducts itself. If humans have one fault, it is that we share too much DNA with sheep. That is, we herd, we follow and...

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