This is more of a sci-fi type prediction of some dystopian society and hence hopefully very unlikely to play out for real! Here is how events may play out. There is a need for massive fiscal and monetary support whilst the virus is spreading; Governments and central banks work together to stimulate spending, round...

Whilst 2020 was a tough year for many, that does not mean 2021 cannot be even more extreme. Monetary policy will continue to be extremely easy throughout 2021 unless the virus is beaten back and inflation shows up very quickly. Whilst the Dems took both Houses, they do not have a majority that would...

Bitcoin rose above $28,000 today. It seems to be gaining wider acceptance in the traditional finance community. If it is to become an accepted asset class, it has only just started the journey and hence its price is likely to see continued gains. Unfortunately, Darwinex no longer supports cryptocurrency so I cannot add to...

We are approaching the end of a very long tunnel. Volatility has re-emerged but is not anything like what we saw in March. See daily chart of S&P500 and 20 day historical volatility below.     Historically, the Fed has always added stimulus when equities started to roll-over - it’s why they are in...

Jerome Powell's recent announcement of the change in Fed policy to target inflation at 2% on average was not a surprise. Powell has previously tried to communicate that the Fed is indifferent between missing on the upside as they are missing on the downside. This policy statement tries to build on those previous statements....

This article aims to offer a solution to the weakness in consumption, productivity deficit and debt burden of the country. No small task. The answer I offer to our ills is to create an investment account for every voting member of society (i.e. they must vote, not simply be registered to vote). That investment...

Forefront in my mind over the next month is central bank policy and the narrative from Powell and other FOMC members from now up to and including their next meeting in September. Yields rose last week in reaction to signs of rising inflation. That then pushed down on the price of gold. The risk...

Yesterday saw a large sell off in gold and silver. Reasons for the fall were abound including rising inflation, increasing yields and the Russian vaccine approval. All of them valid reasons why gold and silver would fall after sitting in overbought territory for so long. But what has changed? The reason I hold gold...

LWE and SKI have held very similar positioning over the last couple of weeks. That reflects my view that the short and medium term opportunities are aligned. However, I expect as the Summer moves on we will see increased volatility due to fiscal incentives being reduced and the momentum trade on gold getting more...