TINA – there is now

We've previously always heard the acronym, TINA (there is no alternative to holding stocks). Whilst stocks may not have themselves offered an attractive yield compared with history at least they were paying more than the 10 year US treasury.  As such this was often put forward as an argument to prefer stocks over bonds. However, given the recent sell off in bonds, that message is no longer true by some distance.

We see now, in the chart below, that the US 10 year out-pays the SP500 dividend yield by more than 1%. With the uncertainty ahead and inflation and rates are expected to go higher, bonds will not be discounted as quickly as pre-2021 when this all changed.