Looking ahead

LWE and SKI have held very similar positioning over the last couple of weeks. That reflects my view that the short and medium term opportunities are aligned. However, I expect as the Summer moves on we will see increased volatility due to fiscal incentives being reduced and the momentum trade on gold getting more overbought. As such the position size in LWE will likely be reduced on extreme price spikes signalling possible large liquidations.

SKI has always aimed to include political trades which can either by near term (e.g. elections) or medium term (e.g. policy changes). I am expecting considerable political activity in the second half of this year as the US election and the end of the UK transition period draws closer.

Whilst news of the coronavirus is currently dwarfing most news, I am hopeful there will be some distinct opportunities to trade political events as time moves on through 2020. US opportunities are harder to forecast here since Trump is difficult to predict timing wise but for GBP it will likely be the usual key meetings which give opportunities. However, unfortunately little is likely to be decided until closer to the deadline and hence these early meetings may be ignored other than a positive surprise for GBP deal-wise.

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